Paint-dryer investing system

Context

Family money is not a portfolio problem first. It is a decision problem, and the decisions are made under exactly the conditions that produce bad ones: infrequently, emotionally, and with no written standard to check against.

Constraint

The real failure in a household portfolio is usually not stock selection. It is capital sitting uninvested for years because no rule ever said what to do with it, and each individual month of waiting looks reasonable.

Contribution

I built a rules-first system in which an investment policy statement comes first and the tooling serves it: a stated cash buffer, a target allocation across equity, bonds, gold, and a bounded satellite position, and a deployment schedule that removes the timing decision from the moment.

Approach

The policy is written down and versioned before any allocation is made, and Monte Carlo analysis and advisor lenses are used to test the policy rather than to pick instruments. Because the rule exists in advance, a decision can be checked against it instead of being justified after the fact.

Outcome

The binding constraint moved from analysis to execution. The numbers and the tooling are settled; what remains is placing the capital according to the policy, which is the honest description of where the system stands.

Evidence

The work is held in a private repository containing the policy statement, the simulation tooling, and the decision record.